The role of prediction markets

Analysts have relied upon prediction markets for a long time, but it's relatively recently that they have been utilised as a custom-built tool. It is widely acknowledged that the best guess of the dispersed and tacit knowledge of the market can routinely beat "expert" judgment. You don't need to believe that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) holds to be suspicious of those who claim to "beat" it - whether it's picking stocks or betting on the World Cup.

We think markets provide the knowledge flows and incentive mechanisms that help us to understand the economy. We also think that prediction markets are an increasingly important tool to monitor and assess the performance of central banks.

See these previous posts:

Kaleidic Economics started by using Inkling Markets to create our own questions and make our own bets, and you can find all of our markets here. In late 2015 Inkling Markets were bought by Cultivate forecasts and their economy prediction markets were branded as AlphaCast.

A list of other providers:

For more information on prediction markets: